Northland flash flooding catches families off guard, prompts urgent call for climate action and better warning systems
Climate Club Aotearoa is calling for faster climate action and improvements to weather warning systems following sudden flash flooding at Puriri Bay campsite in Te Tai Tokerau over the weekend.
Climate Club treasurer Karen Swainson was staying at the campsite with her family when floodwaters rose rapidly, with little time to react.
“We had no warning from MetService at all – it was really alarming,” says Swainson. “One minute everything was fine, and the next the water was rising fast. Families were scrambling to keep kids safe and protect what they could.” – Karen Swainson
MetService notes that 150-200 mm of rain fell yesterday in the hills east of Whangarei in a 12 hour period. Homes and campsites in the area were inundated, adding to growing concerns that local communities are increasingly exposed to fast-moving extreme weather without adequate warning or protection.
“We didn’t get the notice – and local communities’ homes are under water,” says Swainson, the Climate Club Aotearoa Trustee. “Clearly we need to take more urgent action on the climate emergency, reduce emissions faster, and help the communities in Te Tai Tokerau.”
While it would take significant funding to formally attribute this specific flooding event to climate change, Dr Greg Bodeker of Climate Club’s Science Panel says the broader science is unequivocal.
“The frequency and severity of such flash floods is expected to increase with a warming atmosphere” says Bodeker. “It would be costly to determine the precise contribution of a warming atmosphere to the severity of this particular flooding event but, overall, the science clearly shows climate change is driving more wild weather.”
“On average, with every degree of warming, the atmosphere holds 7% more water; although this sensitivity of extreme precipitation to warming shows a lot of variability over New Zealand (see figure). Given that the atmosphere is now close to 1.5°C warmer than in preindustrial times, and the high sensitivity of extreme precipitation in Northland to that warming (about 11% per °C), this event is expected to have been 16% more severe as a result of climate change. The 50 mm of rain in a 12-hour period in Whangarei is therefore no surprise.“
This figure shows the sensitivity of 1-in-100 year rainfall events to each 1°C change in global mean surface temperature.
Bodeker argues that public money is better spent on solutions that reduce emissions and protect communities, rather than repeatedly analysing damage after the fact.
“Climate action is urgent,” Bodeker says. “While a formal attribution of a warming climate to extreme weather events can raise awareness of the effects of climate change, we would be better off investing any available public money into emissions reductions (e.g., more bus services for rural areas) and increasing resilience to climate impacts. We can all take the Climate Club Challenge to swap a car trip too – or advocate for better public transport in our area.”
Karen Swainson and Dr Greg Bodeker are available for interviews and can speak firsthand about the experience of being caught in the flooding with her family, as well as the need for urgent climate action and better preparedness to respond as extreme weather is becoming more frequent.